Conventional Forces in Europe - CFE Treaty

East-West negotiations for mutual and balanced force reductions (MBFR, or MFR for those who do not believe in the concept of ‘balance’) were held in Vienna between 1973 and 1989 without coming to any firm conclusion. In 1989, however, new talks began that turned out to be much more positive. Also held in Vienna, they concerned reductions in conventional forces in Europe (CFE).

In late 1988 President Gorbachev announced some unilateral cuts in Soviet forces, then, in the course of 1989, specific ceilings were agreed. Still, at the beginning of 1991, the Warsaw Pact had the capacity to put something like 30,000 tanks into what was West Germany within a month, out of a total of around 51,000 tanks stationed west of the Urals.

Western diplomats hope that a CFE agreement will see the number of Warsaw Pact tanks reduced to 20,000 west of the Urals, with NATO retaining up to the same number in Western Europe. Since NATO has around 17,000 tanks, of which perhaps 10,000 would be available for Germany, this would lead to a position not far from parity.

The current proposals also provide for each side to have 28,000 armored troop carriers, 500 air defense interceptor aircraft, 4700 combat aircraft and 3800 attack helicopters. The Eastern bloc refuses to count its numerous defensive fighters in the equation, and so would retain numerical superiority in the air. Quite apart from this negotiation, the advent of a unified Germany means that we may see a demilitarized buffer zone at the heart of Europe.

This has been suggested by some CFE negotiators, although at the time of writing the military status and alignment of the reunited Germany remains unclear. Nevertheless, should the storm clouds return and Germany become a battle ground, even under CFE there would still be very large forces available to fight a war there. After all, Hitler was able to defeat France in his 1940 blitzkrieg using a total of just 3000 tanks.